HOW the ELEPHANT (India) tames the DRAGON (China)

HOW the ELEPHANT (India) tames the DRAGON (China)

In the current geopolitical scenario, the Dragon (China) seems to have a free ride in Asia. Under such adverse conditions, the Elephant (India) has to do some real soul searching to tame this rising dragon. One approach can be to replicate China’s actions during the last few decades. These actions were to build-up a close relationship with the West (especially USA) and dump goods into their markets by producing & attracting its finances & technology. Their geopolitical game can also be replicated if India becomes the second largest economy; China was able to use Russia’s (old USSR) energy resources & military assets to boost its indigenous manufacturing base.

As we know, China has five province-level autonomous regions: Xinjiang (mainly for Uyghurs), Tibet (mainly for Tibetans), Ningxia (mainly for Hui), Guangxi (mainly for Zhuang) and Inner Mongolia (mainly for Mongols). Manchuria, the three Northeastern Provinces of China is the home of Manchus & many other native minority groups, such as Korean, Russian, Xibe, Hezhe, Oroqen and Owenk. Some of them have cultures associated with Russia, Mongolia and Korea. Its western part, Inner Mongolia is the home of Mongols. Northwestern China is the home of people with Islamic practices consisting of Uyghurs and Hui. Tibetans and Qiang are the two major ethnicities on the Tibet plateau.  In Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi, Miao nationality shares culture with people in Laos; Jingpo nationality shares culture with people in northern Myanmar; Dai (aka Thai) Guangxi is the minority group of second largest population in China, same culture in northern Vietnam. While Article 36 of China’s constitution guarantees “religious freedom”, in practice, ethnic violence has been on the rise in mainland China.

India should use its ‘Soft power’ (multi-party transparent Democracy, free press/religion) as a tool to isolate China’s communist, single-party authoritative regime from getting respect as a ‘responsible world power’. China expects this respect due to its brute non-transparent economy & military muscle-power. Here, India can solicit support from Western powers (USA, Japan & EU) and Islamic powers (Iran, Turkey, Central Asia & Saudi) in isolating China for its support to ‘terror supporting regimes (Pakistan / North Korea)’. Again, India can try to convince Western / Islamic powers to impress upon Russia to delink itself from Chinese nexus by adjudicating Russia as a ‘responsible global SUPER power’ by including it in the main global economy. World media & social media can be used successfully in creating such an environment. Such ‘Overt’ action has to be supplemented by ‘Covert’ actions too. These actions would include raising ‘human rights & minority protection’ public relations exercise including journalists, academicians, non-government organizations & other world forums. This may include getting in touch with ‘Minorities in China’ to garner their support in getting justice under Chinese rule. Leaders of such minorities should be supported and offered platform to raise their voice against enforced injustice (Religious, equal-opportunity, Judicial, Cultural).

India, with its current growth, requires another few years to match China’s economic & military strength. These few years have to be used to impress upon the world (USA, Russia & EU), the threat & uncertainty that a rouge global power - China can cause. India (along with Western countries & Japan) has to counter China’s influence in Africa & South / Latin America by offering them better alternatives compared to what China has to offer.

INDIA’s Spice Route v/s CHINA’s Silk Road

In the middle of European crisis, a silent re-alignment of two emerging Asian giants is taking shape. This would force major changes in world politics and strategic scenarios. Recent Pentagon report said China wants to expand its military access to the Indian Ocean region and may set up access points or replenishment bases in India’s vicinity within the next ten years. This will only intensify Sino-Indian rivalry for domination of the Indo-Pacific Ocean.

China’s “one belt and one road” (OBOR) strategy has become major foreign policy goal. Beijing will promote this initiative economically, politically, militarily and culturally over the next eight to ten years. China sees its “Silk Road Economic Belt” among its Central Asian neighbors as indivisible from the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR)”. This indicates that, like many Chinese foreign policy initiatives, MSR is multi-pronged and it is intended to serve diplomatic, economic, and strategic purposes.

India’s ‘Mausam’ or Arabic ‘Mawsim’ refers to the season when ships could sail safely. The English term ‘Monsoon’ came from Portuguese ‘Monção’, ostensibly from Arabic ‘Mawsim’. The etymology of this word signifies the importance of this season to a variety of seafarers. Kerala, a state in southern India, had two millennia-old ‘Spice Route’. Its maritime trade relates to thirty-one countries associated with the ancient Spice Route. Centuries of trade, migration, colonialism and modern statecraft transformed these traditional interactions across the Indo-Pacific Ocean, but present-day national identities and perceptions of the past are deeply interwoven with age-old ties. The expansion of Hinduism, Buddhism, Islam and Christianity helped define the boundaries of Indo-Pacific Ocean ‘world’, creating networks of religious travel and pilgrimage.

This ‘Spice project’ aims to explore the multi-faceted Indo-Pacific Ocean ‘world’ – collating archaeological and historical research in order to document the diversity of cultural, commercial and religious interactions in the Indian Ocean – extending from East Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka to the Southeast Asian archipelago.

In nutshell, the ‘Spice project’ has three-dimensional approach: first, to deepen cultural bonding, second, to ensure maritime security and third, to broaden economic connectivity with nations of the Indo-Pacific Region. As it has a strategic ramification also, India is getting crucial help from the US in strengthening its capabilities for a potential role and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Though no details are made available to suggest India-US collaboration in the region, the India-Japan-America (IN-JP-US) trilateral talks signifies implicit with contours of strategic engagement among like-minded nations for peace and security in the Indian Ocean highway – the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, around Southern Africa and the Mozambique Channel. It is said that all these are cautiously worked out so that strategic balance between India and China doesn’t get out of control.

But given the unpredictable nature of China, India doesn’t want to lower its guard especially when its maritime silk route plan is taking shape. China has been trying all bids to regain a position of centrality in the Asia-Pacific region. It should be noted that China’s ancient silk route that stretched up to the Mediterranean Sea, covered India, Persia, Arabia and Rome. During 2nd century BC, China used sea route to trade in silk to buy cotton and spices from India, precious stones and other items from Persia, Arabia and Europe. China wants to revive that ancient trade route through its new silk route plan mooted by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his Kazakhastan visit in 2013. It envisions an economic cooperation bloc from China to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe. 

According to strategic experts, China’s planned silk route would effectively allow Beijing to develop a parallel trading network – a huge maritime arc encircling the whole of Asia and running into Europe. That means China will have a maritime dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. Officials looking after the Spice project in India maintain that it provides New Delhi an answer to counter balance China’s silk route strategy as it allows the country to secure its interest in the Indo-Pacific without engaging in militaristic adventurism. True, India’s recent high-level diplomatic engagement with Southeast Asian nations, Fiji and 12 other countries of the Pacific region, Mauritius and other African countries and South American nations like Surinam, Trinidad and Tobago—need to be seen in the context of historical, religious and ethnic linkages India has with these nations. Nonetheless, India seems to be on right track with regard to the project “Mausam (Spice Route)” for which more than 50 countries have been identified.

Recently, India has taken forward policy of maintaining its dominance in Indian ocean by various naval co-operations, ties of building Deep Defense Assets in littoral countries, however it depends on accurately playing its multi vectored diplomacy and strengthening its defense infrastructure. India considers its sphere of influence to extend from the Red Sea in the west to the Strait of Malacca in the east which links the Indian Ocean with the Pacific Ocean. India has a defense agreement with Oman which includes berthing right for its navy. In 2008 India signed a defense agreement with Qatar which virtually makes India the security guarantor of Qatar. India also has extensive defense ties with Singapore. India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands at the mouth of the Malacca strait hosts India’s only tri-services command and India is looking to enlarge this by stationing a division size force, more naval and air assets. India has a monitoring station in Madagascar, complete with radars and surveillance gear to intercept maritime communication and plans to have 32 radar stations installed in Seychelles, Mauritius, Maldives and Sri Lanka. India secured the ‘development’ rights for two islands, Agalega in Mauritius and Assomption in Seychelles.

While countries littoral to the Malacca view the Indian Navy as a reliable and non-controversial ally and are convinced of the Indian Navy’s ability to play a non-threatening, security enhancing role and look towards India to be a security provider in the face of increasing Chinese aggression, China will not accept India as a guarantor of security in the region. India will have to make sure it leaves no gaps in the security of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands which in essence is a large unsinkable aircraft carrier for India and a major worry for China as it gives India a strategic advantage.

Finally, as not mentioned explicitly in authoritative Chinese sources or media, the Maritime Silk Road, and Chinese infrastructure investment, has implicitly intended to facilitate more frequent People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) deployments in the Indian Ocean and beyond. The PLAN needs reliable logistics chains across Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) throughout Southeast and South Asia as ships cannot go far without a reliable supply of fuel, food, and armaments. But for the foreseeable future, China has a serious disadvantage in this regard - the U.S. Navy and allied navies have such a preponderance of force and ability to project power throughout the region, that the PLAN appears ill-equipped to compete. Given the PLAN’s current capabilities, China’s logistics capacity would only be dependable during peacetime - they would not survive in a conflicting environment, particularly if the U.S. decids to close off key chokepoints like the Malacca and Sunda Straits.

A combination of diplomacy, strategic investments and increasing military strength in the Indo-Pacific Ocean Region is the only way India can counter China. While India develops its naval assets like aircraft carriers, submarines and other warships to project power across the region, it will have to develop a strategic doctrine for the Indo-Pacific Ocean Region all the way to East China Sea. A strong navy is one of the means to achieve the strategic objectives.